Press review: Energy talks as Putin visits Astana and Biden requests more aid for Kiev

MOSCOW, November 28. /TASS/. Moscow and Astana discuss new energy projects as Russian President Vladmir Putin visits; US leader Joe Biden makes last-minute plea to lawmakers for more aid to Ukraine. Meanwhile, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa maintains contact with both Putin and Vladimir Zelensky on Ukraine. These stories topped Thursday’s newspaper headlines in Russia.
 
On November 27, Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived in Kazakhstan for a two-day state visit. This marks his second trip to Astana in 2024, following his attendance at a summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in the Kazakh capital in July. Later on Thursday, the Russian leader will participate in a meeting of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) in Astana.
In a sign that Moscow and Astana maintain a strong and comprehensive partnership, 20 documents were signed following talks between Putin and his Kazakh counterpart, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, with a joint statement on enhancing the bilateral strategic partnership in the context of a new world order being a key outcome.
The Russia-Kazakhstan talks focused on economic issues, as Russia is one of Kazakhstan’s major partners and its second-largest foreign trade counterparty, accounting for 17.1%. In 2023, trade between Russia and Kazakhstan reached a record high, approaching $30 billion, while in January-September 2024, trade hit $20.6 billion, with 90% of transactions being processed in national currencies, Putin specified.
Despite strong economic figures, cooperation in the banking sector between the two countries is being hindered by the West’s sanctions policy, Stanislav Pritchin of the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Primakov Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO RAS) told Izvestia.
Among other announcements, Putin revealed Russia’s plans to increase natural gas supplies to Uzbekistan via Kazakhstan. During closed-door talks, the two sides discussed a new gas export route through the Central Asian country. The project envisions building a natural gas pipeline with a capacity of 45 billion cubic meters, 10 billion of which will be supplied to northeastern Kazakhstan and the remaining 35 billion to Chinese consumers, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak explained to Izvestia. As this is a trilateral agreement, it must also be discussed with Chinese partners, he said. “While the Kazakhs expressed their interest in this project and confirmed they can handle their part [of the work] to ensure gas transit and supplies to [their country’s] northeast, the project is still being discussed with our Chinese partners,” he added.
Outgoing US President Joe Biden has quietly asked Congress to allocate $24 billion in new aid to Ukraine, Politico reported on Wednesday, citing a list outlined by the White House Office of Management and Budget. Legislators are encouraged to incorporate this new package into their solution to prevent a government shutdown before a December 20 deadline.
Of the total sum requested, $16 billion would go toward replenishing US inventories, and the remaining $8 billion would be directed toward the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI), through which the US military orders new or foreign weapons for Kiev.
Supporters of President-elect Donald Trump have already criticized the push. Commenting on Biden’s request on X, billionaire Elon Musk stated that the incumbent US leader is “financing an eternal war.” Republican Mike Lee, a US senator from Utah, also voiced his outrage, arguing that all of Biden’s initiatives “should be DOA (dead on arrival)” in Congress.
By requesting additional funds, Biden hopes to provide some kind of assurance to Ukraine for the first months of Trump’s presidency – and impede his ability to pursue both domestic and foreign policies, Ilya Kravchenko, adviser to the director of the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies, told Vedomosti. “If Congress approves the allocation of funds, Biden will present this as his success. Otherwise, disagreements over the budget will intensify, and the likelihood of a [government] shutdown will rise,” the expert explained. According to him, a potential government shutdown would force Trump to focus on coordinating the budget rather than implementing a real agenda at the start of his new term.
Although slim, the chance of endorsing budget spending with additional funds for Ukraine should not be dismissed, said Senior Research Fellow at the Institute for US and Canadian Studies Dmitry Kochegurov. Even though Trump opposes funding for Ukraine, he still supports a robust US defense industry, the expert maintained.
South African President Cyril Ramaphosa has been keeping in touch with both his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, and Ukraine’s Vladimir Zelensky in efforts to resolve the Ukraine conflict, Presidential Spokesman Vincent Magwenya told Izvestia. While in 2023, an African delegation led by Ramaphosa visited Russia and Ukraine and presented its peace initiative, Pretoria alone is unlikely to make a major contribution.
However, despite the lack of tangible results, South Africa should not be overlooked in the context of conflict resolution: firstly, in June 2024, Ramaphosa was re-elected for another five-year presidential term, and his current and future initiatives are still valid. Secondly, South Africa will assume the rotating G20 presidency in 2025.
That said, South Africa could potentially lend its support to the resolution of the crisis in collaboration with, for example, the African Union. “Ukraine and its partners, namely the United States and the European Union, do not view Pretoria as a player with enough influence in the international arena,” Maya Nikolskaya, acting director of the Center for African Studies at Moscow State Institute of International Relations, who sits on the expert panel of the Valdai Discussion Club, told Izvestia. “And the African Union has its own global security architecture and experience in peacekeeping missions,” she added.
However, Nikolskaya questioned whether the United States, for one, would agree to discuss the issue at BRICS.
Meanwhile, other BRICS members, primarily China and India, appear more independent as potential peacekeepers. The two nuclear powers are among the world’s largest economies and the most populated. Among other key proposals, Beijing put forward its 12-point peace plan in February 2023, and its initiative was received positively in the Kremlin, unlike in the West.
Moreover, China recently appointed a new ambassador to Ukraine. The newly appointed envoy, Ma Shengkun, who previously served as deputy director-general of the Chinese Foreign Ministry’s arms control department, could continue to monitor Western weapons supplies while remaining directly in Ukraine.
India has been less active as a peacekeeper, even though Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has repeatedly expressed his readiness to contribute to resolving the crisis as soon as possible. The Indian Foreign Ministry stated a month ago that New Delhi is exploring “alternative ways” of solving the conflict. At the BRICS Summit, Modi informed Putin about his contacts with the Ukrainian leadership, assuring the Russian leader that his country is ready to make a contribution toward peace.
While Ukraine and the Middle East have been the hottest spots globally, a war could also erupt in the Asia-Pacific region. Keeping this scenario in mind, Washington has added one of its newest nuclear-powered submarines, the USS Minnesota, to its naval base in Guam. The move will help “deter aggression and promote a peaceful and prosperous Indo-Pacific region,” the US Navy stated on its website, without directly mentioning China. However, Asian media insist that the warning is aimed exclusively at China.
The Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post reported that the island of Guam, located just 2,900 kilometers (1,800 miles) from China’s key military facilities in the mainland and the South China Sea, is closer to Beijing than Hawaii, where the new submarine had been stationed since 2022.
In an interview with Nezavisimaya Gazeta, a senior researcher at the Higher School of Economics (HSE) commented: “It’s true that Guam is closer to China than the [US] base in Hawaii where this submarine was previously stationed. This means the Americans have deployed it nearer to a potential theater of war. Fighting could break out in the East China Sea, where Japan, a US ally, has long had a dispute over the ownership of the Senkaku Islands (also known as the Diaoyu Islands).” Additionally, the US Navy and Air Force have been regularly deploying their warships and warplanes to the South China Sea to support allies and demonstrate that they reject China’s claims—that almost all the islands in the South China Sea should fall under Beijing’s jurisdiction, citing historical records and the results of archaeological excavations, the expert added. “An even more dangerous area where territorial disputes could escalate into war is the Taiwan Strait and Taiwan itself,” he warned.
Previously, the United States had four submarines capable of targeting Chinese assets in Guam, which were launched in the early 2000s. Now, a fifth, more advanced submarine has been deployed in yet another effort to contain China, a policy the United States has followed since the era of former US President George W. Bush. “The tension is getting increasingly tighter,” Kashin concluded.
On December 5, OPEC+ member countries are expected to discuss implementing further restrictions on oil production in 2025. They will likely refrain from increasing oil output, a move originally scheduled for January. The group could also postpone restoring oil production by several months. If OPEC+ moves to relax its oil output controls, prices could sink, especially amid a slowdown in the global economy, analysts warn. Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and Kazakhstan have been actively discussing maintaining oil production cuts.
On Wednesday, Brent traded at $72 per barrel, and, in general, oil prices have mostly fluctuated between $70 and $80 per barrel this year. However, oil prices have been declining recently. On Tuesday, crude prices fell below $74. In this context, OPEC+ countries are working to coordinate efforts to keep Brent prices above $70 per barrel.
Extending oil output cuts within OPEC+ seems realistic, according to experts. “As key members of the alliance, Saudi Arabia and Russia have the economic incentives to support oil prices, and their engagement in negotiations, including meetings with Iraq, shows their push for coordination,” analyst Kirill Klimentyev at Tsifra Broker told the newspaper.
According to him, next year, oil prices will depend on global demand, economic growth, a potential increase in US shale oil production, and even geopolitical tensions. Klimentyev says oil prices could remain in the range of $70-80 per barrel if the current restrictions are extended, but if OPEC+ loosens its oil output controls, prices could drop, especially if the global economy slows down.
Nikolay Dudchenko, an analyst at Finam, sees little justification for the group to release additional oil volumes to the market at current prices. “Next year, OPEC+ will largely be influenced by market oil prices. And now, potential steps by the White House to boost production remain a key risk,” he added.
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